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  • Forecasting the future need and gaps in requirements for public health professionals in India up to 2026 / Ritika Tiwari;Himanshu Negandhi;Sanjay Zodpey
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Forecasting the future need and gaps in requirements for public health professionals in India up to 2026 / Ritika Tiwari;Himanshu Negandhi;Sanjay Zodpey

Tác giả : Ritika Tiwari;Himanshu Negandhi;Sanjay Zodpey

Nhà xuất bản : World Health Organization. Regional Office for South-East Asia

Năm xuất bản : 2019

Chủ đề : 1. Public Health. 2. Journal / periodical articles.

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Current ambitious reforms in India mean that public health professionals (PHPs) will become anincreasingly vital component of the health workforce. Despite a rapid growth in schools of publichealth in India, uptake of places by students without a medical background is low. This paper reportsthe results of an exercise to estimate the baseline supply of, and need for, PHPs in India in 2017and to forecast possible supply–need scenarios up to 2026. Supply was estimated using the stockand flow approach and the service–target approach was used to estimate need. The additionalneed resulting from development of a new public health cadre, as stated in the National HealthPolicy 2017, was also included. Supply–need gaps were forecast according to three scenarios,which varied according to the future intensity of policy intervention to increase occupancy of trainingplaces for PHPs from a non-medical background: “best guess” (no intervention), “optimistic” (feasibleintervention), and “aspirational” (significant intervention) scenarios. In the best guess scenario in2017, i.e. with a low non-medical place occupancy of 60%, there is a supply–need gap of around28 000 PHPs. In the absence of any intervention to increase place occupancy, this shortfall is forecastto increase to 45 000 PHPs by the year 2026. By contrast, in the aspirational scenario, i.e. with ahigh place occupancy of 75% for non-medical places, the baseline gap for 2017 of almost 26 000PHPs reduces by 2026 to around 21 000 PHPs. By 2026, most new PHPs will be produced by publichealth training programmes offered by institutions other than medical colleges. Without significantinterventions, India is likely to have a significant shortfall in PHPs in 2026. Policy-makers will have tocarefully examine issues surrounding the current low uptake of non-medical public health seats andreview the current framework regulating training of PHPs, in order to respond adequately to futurerequirements.
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https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/329499